Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 10.745894 12.022595 13.454682 15.193031 17.263669 19.673691 22.724510
2025-04-13 8.770038 10.313194 12.174167 14.623520 17.824542 21.958568 27.864599
2025-04-20 8.420610 10.303404 12.711737 16.106710 20.924708 27.784799 38.849229
2025-04-27 7.831789 9.859185 12.566021 16.583901 22.665353 32.045169 48.859934
2025-05-04 7.053473 9.051190 11.797519 16.023731 22.723968 33.693542 55.058999
2025-05-11 6.695975 8.769702 11.711645 16.421872 24.289993 38.099562 67.871718
2025-05-18 6.236690 8.292781 11.279185 16.207269 24.782237 40.701480 78.109118
2025-05-25 5.849997 7.883594 10.900018 16.015809 25.259798 43.362503 89.708603
2025-06-01 5.545071 7.568091 10.629492 15.960858 25.959587 46.629379 104.589364
2025-06-08 5.201575 7.167419 10.187740 15.555457 25.918889 48.290618 115.979909
2025-06-15 4.973637 6.927215 9.980490 15.534060 26.623685 51.827804 135.647849
2025-06-22 4.656445 6.527228 9.481371 14.930909 26.041175 52.124527 144.419870
2025-06-29 4.332280 6.109277 8.942470 14.238728 25.252017 51.931546 152.371131
2025-07-06 4.065685 5.769496 8.513721 13.716503 24.767361 52.470268 164.323436
2025-07-13 4.140893 5.982597 9.036705 15.069949 28.720651 66.755568 260.742006
2025-07-20 4.059231 5.930832 9.092172 15.504370 30.630374 75.968091 352.711410
2025-07-27 3.844786 5.644464 8.708373 14.994354 30.096798 76.880402 388.371967
2025-08-03 3.770271 5.590075 8.739342 15.356915 31.887364 86.913664 536.349087
2025-08-10 3.625654 5.407577 8.521781 15.161531 32.151082 91.354668 648.770858
2025-08-17 3.494047 5.240928 8.322902 14.987137 32.446151 96.145790 795.627723
2025-08-24 3.386929 5.111609 8.185907 14.937069 33.093324 102.896620 1030.980094
2025-08-31 3.248093 4.920217 7.919371 14.567500 32.735994 104.913664 1197.682873
2025-09-07 3.159066 4.813077 7.808731 14.547983 33.443153 112.627762 1624.128114